Weiner International Associates
           Weiner International Associates

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December 2018

Merry Xmas - Happy Chanukkah -Happy New Year !

 

Allied Market Research's report "HDI PCB Market by End-User (Consumer Electronics, Automotive, Industrial Electronics, IT & Telecommunications and Others) and Application (Smartphone & Tablet, Laptop & PC, Smart Wearables and Others): Global Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecast, 2018-2025"  states that the global HDI PCB market generated $9.5 billion in 2017, and is expected to reach at $22.3 billion by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 11.1% from 2018 to 2025. Increased utilization of HDI technology in automobiles is predicted to offer new opportunities to the market.

 

Busy, but....

 

The International Printed Circuit & APEX South China Fair presented by the HKPCA and the IPC was busy. There was a lot of interest and activity, but save for multilayer presses, many orders for new equipment were put on hold as local business declined due to the trade war and the future seemed uncertain. PCB fabricators appear to be overbuilding giant facilities even though existing facilities were running at 75% or less of capacity. Firms scrambled for short term solutions to find "affordable" alternate sources for their supply lines. Even some Chinese firms sent teams to Mexico to seek out new factory sites.

I believe that Vietnam could be a big winner even if the U.S. and China settle their differences soon.

 

There must be a better way!

 

How does one cover a show with more than 2,800 exhibitors? Why not join other 125,000 visitors and attend NEPCON Japan 2019 January 16-18 at Tokyo Big Sight and find out? Or, How about CES 2019? More than 4,500 exhibitors will host 180,000+ visitors in Las Vegas January 8-11. You will need a great deal of pre-planning and a team even if you only focus on seeing all the specific items of interest to you.

 

Double Whammy? Triple Whammy? Or ????  Long term versus short term!

 

How does one plan for the future given the current turbulence in the electronics (and other) industries when one considers the effects of claimed activities of ZTE and Huawei, the trade war between China and the U.S., component shortages, shifting supply chains, and the impending annual Chinese New Year shut-down?

 

Dateline December 1

 

Someone asked, "What Happened During the G20 in Argentina?"

 

The United States and China called a truce in their trade war at a dinner meeting on Saturday December 1 after President Trump agreed to hold off on new tariffs and President Xi Jinping pledged to increase Chinese purchases of American products. The two also set the stage for more painstaking negotiations to resolve deeply rooted differences over trade.

 

...and

 

Canada arrested Huawei’s CFO on December 1 (now out on bail - December 13) in response to a U.S. request for extradition, sparking outrage in China.

 

yet, on the 6th...

 

China’s commerce ministry said that the ultimate goal in Sino-U.S. trade talks is to remove all tariffs, adding that the recent meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had been successful. Source: Reuters Beijing

 

Then President Xi Jinping’s government said that it would cut tariffs on U.S. cars to 15% from 40%. China also announced that it would put more effort into protecting intellectual-property rights.

 

Register early for IPC's Executive Forum on Advancing Automotive Electronics and receive a 20% discount. You must register before December 21 to receive the discount!

 

This not-to-be-missed event on January 28, 2019 at IPC APEX EXPO 2019 is designed for executives in the global electronics systems supply chain. The forum features such worldwide notables as Dr. Udo Welzel, Team Leader for Assembly and Interconnect Technology Integration for High-Performance Logic Automotive Electronic Control Units of Robert Bosch GmbH, who will present "Enabling Connected, Electrified and Automated Mobility: Challenges for Assembly and Interconnect Technology'. Also featured is Alex Stepinski Vice President of GreenSource Fabrication LLC and Managing Director of AWP GmbH, who will discuss the world's first “green” 4.0 PCB fabrication facility with single piece flow in-line automated facility with 100% layer traceability for advanced HDI/IC substrate/FPC production, plus its implications for automotive electronics.  

 

Bob Neves, Chairman/CTO of Microtek Labs China and member of the IPC's Board of Directors will present "PCB Reliability Tesing for Automotive Electronics - The China Story". Joe D'Ambrisi, Senior Vice President of MacDermid Alpha Electronics Solutions will present "The Global Outlook for Specialty Chemicals & Materials in Automotive Electronic Packaging".

 

Carlo Favini, founder of Elga Europe will present "Developing a New Dry Film Photoresist to Meet Automotive Very Fine Line Circuit Needs - a Multicompany-Multinational Cooperative Program" (co-authored with Giorgio Favini, CEO Elga Europe).

 

Dwight Howard, Manager, Electrical Engineering, North America & Asia-Pacific Product Development Infotainment and Driver Information (IDI) PBU, Electronics & Safety Division, APTIV LLC (formerly: Delphi Automotive Systems IDI/NA Division) will discuss "Integrated Intelligent Transportation and Key Enablers". 

 

Randy Hierbaum, Vice President of Sales, Optimal+ will present "Striving for Zero DPPM" He will discuss working on quality excellence programs with a Tier 1 provider while improving process cycle times. Alun Morgan, Technology Ambassador of Ventec and Chairman of the EIPC will discuss providing a simple and universal adoption route for all suppliers with "Developing Universal Solutions to Automotive Materials Challenges."

 

Larry Wilson III, leader of Nexteer's Automotive Global Electronics Costing Team will discuss creating cost models with suppliers and investing costs of new technologies. He will provide forecasts of future costs of automotive electronics.

 

Dr. John Mitchell, IPC President and CEO, will initiate the meeting with a high level, presentation, "Freeway to the Future: Automotive Elecronics Past/Present/Future."

 

Registration information for the Executive Forum on Advancing Automotive Electronics is available online at www.ipcapexexpo.org

 

Register NOW to claim your 20% discount!

 

November 2018

 

Activity for reshoring of electronics manufacturing and assembly, or at least moving away from China, is gaining momentum due to the intesifying "trade war" between the U.S. and China, as well as because of rising freight costs. The shortage of skilled and semiskilled workers must also now be weighed into the equation when evaluating options. The situation is seen to be providing a major boost for robtics and increased usage of IoT to help offset the current challenges.

 

China will give its supreme court a greater role in intellectual property cases regarding patents and trade secrets, starting in January, as it aims to increase transparency and consistency in response to international criticism. Protecting intellectual property rights is a key sticking point in the Sino-American trade war.

 

China's economic growth continues to slow. Smartphone shipments dropped 15.2% to 100.6 million units in the 3rd quarter of 2018. China’s imports of ICs, chips that go into smartphones and other electronic devices, as well as high-end industrial and military products, have also declined. The PRC imported $29.18 billion worth of integrated circuits in October, down 16.4% from September.

 

Early in the month China's President Xi used the first China International Import Expo in Shanghai to announce "easier market access and some reduced tariffs" to celebrate the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up. He promised to take other steps to foster "free trade" and spoke against protectionism. Xi's speech appears to be a hopeful gambit in the negotiations with the U.S. It was favorably viewed by executives of the chairman of Johnson & Johnson China, the chief executive of Siemens China, a member of the executive board of Wacker Chemie AG as well as Roberto Azevedo the sirector-general of the World Trade Organization and Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund.

 

The global conformal coating market will approach $16 billion by 2024. It is currently over $10 billion according to a study by California's Hexa Research.

 

China's Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo captured a total of approximately a quarter of the global smartphone market in the first half of 2018, according to data from the market research firm IDC.

 

Smartphone maker Vivo's existing manufacturing campus of over 50 acres in Greater Noida, India has completely localized production. It invested $43 million to make its own printed circuits there.

 

The global automotive electronics market size is expected to reach $410.13 billion by 2025, according to a study conducted by Grand View Research. Growth is forecasted to be a CAGR of 8.6% during the forecast period. Growing adoption of safety systems to curb road fatalities and increasing demand for state-of-the-art vehicles are expected to fuel the automotive electronics market.

 

It was not easy!

 

Taiwan-based PCB maker Nan Ya has reported sales of $89.89 million for October, up by 5% from the previous month, and up by 20% over October 2017. For the first 10 months of 2018 Nan Ya PCB revenues reached $773.8 million, up by 7.4% compared with the same period last year.

 

News from Taiwan

 

Unitech Printed Circuit Board joined the PCB A-Team project led by Taiwan Printed Circuit Association last year to become a pioneer for introducing smart manufacturing into the PCB industry. After more than a year of team integration and communication, the foundation engineering is gradually ending, and the project is expected to take effect next year. While actively entering into smart manufacturing, Unitech is considering many market factors. The Deputy General Manager LI, LI-CHUN of Unitech said that with increasingly complicated electronic product designs in the future, PCB processes are facing severe challenges and has no choice but to implement smart manufacturing.

 

DIGITIMES reports that most Taiwan-based PCB manufacturers are cautious about their business outlook for 2019 and will slow down their capital spending orginally slated for expansion projects. Fabricators believe that demand will decline due to rising economic uncertainty caused by the U.S.-China trade war.

Tripod Technology said it will focus on ramping up its capacity for multilayer boards to increase the added-value of its PCB products, while also deepening its deployments in the high-margin automotive boards. It said that its new plant being built in Hubei, China will also be dedicated to the production of high-end boards.

Compeq Manufacturing said that it has put on hold its original plans to ramp up the capacity of its plant in Chongqing, China due to lower order visibility for 2019.

Apex International, a Taiwan based PCB firm with facilities in Thailand, is an exception.

It will start a third-phase expansion project of its second plant in their during Q1  as it has a backlog of orders that will keep its plants full through 2019. Its geographic advantage has resdulted in increased activity from the EMS and network equipment sectors.


Automotive electronics

 

The automotive electronics market will grow at 9.1% CAGR from $226.5 billion last year to $490.6 billion by 2026 according to a report by Polaris Market Research!

 

Volkswagen plans to spend $50 billion on electric cars, autonomous driving and new mobility services by 2023. It will also explore closer cooperation with Ford. The company will retool three of its German plants to build electric cars. It will also explore alliances with battery partners and rival carmakers.

 

Taiwan's Advanced Printed Circuit Board’s (APCB) plant in Thailand will start small-volume shipments of automotive PCBs to Germany’s Continental Group next month.

 

Has the printed circuit industry morphed into an oligopoly? What do you think? Let us know!

 

 

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